Canada’s northern regions could become the new frontier for growth as global warming unlocks vast agricultural potential
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What does the future hold for our young and dynamic country?
Eco-economist Eric Noel has been pondering that very question through his Canada Towards 2030 Project. The project calls itself “a non-partisan and non-prescriptive foresight research initiative,” but its conclusions are anything but neutral.
“The Canada of tomorrow may not be the country it is today, and positioning ourselves, our cities, and our organizations is key,” the project warns. “What will you do in 2030? Where will you be?”
One thing is certain: change is coming, and it will be seismic. Canada Towards 2030 predicts that in 2030, a population shift toward Ontario and the West will have completely redrawn our electoral map. This will, by necessity, reduce the political importance of the East Coast and Quebec.
While some in the tech world worry about robots replacing workers, the Canada Towards 2030 Project takes the opposite view. Thanks to Canada’s low birth rate and changing demographics, it suggests, we might face a more urgent crisis: “Instead of plants, mines, or labs closing due to foreign competition or high exchange rates, could they instead be forced to shut down because of labour shortages?”
 Could Canada’s undeveloped areas – from Prince Rupert to Saskatoon – thrive? |
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But perhaps the most undeniable change on the horizon is global warming. The climate, both in Canada and worldwide, will be radically altered due to carbon emissions that continue to spiral out of control. While many argue that the prudent course of action is to work toward reversing carbon emission growth through measures like closing coal-fired power plants, pursuing energy efficiency, and imposing carbon taxes, Canada’s minuscule global carbon footprint suggests an even more daring approach: embracing global warming.
After all, it’s an ill wind that doesn’t blow somebody some good. Despite the global upheaval that climate change will cause, northern countries like Canada could emerge as unexpected beneficiaries.
Take agriculture, for example. Canada’s harsh climate has historically limited the growing season in much of the country. That’s why most Canadians live within 160 km of the U.S. border – this area is the most desirable for its climate and agricultural potential. If global warming predictions hold true, this temperate zone will expand dramatically. This shift will open up vast new areas in Canada’s mid-zone – the underpopulated region between the U.S. border and the Arctic – for development.
Could Canada support a population of 100 million?
If global warming proceeds as anticipated – and there is no reason to believe it won’t – Canada’s northern regions, from Prince Rupert on the West Coast across the northern parts of British Columbia, Alberta, Saskatchewan, and parts of Manitoba, could become much more desirable. These regions could support a population equal to or greater than that of the existing border zone.
The key to achieving this? Immigration. It’s the only way Canada can realistically double its population. But let’s be clear: it’s also apparent that major cities like Montreal, Toronto, and Vancouver – while still the destination of choice for many immigrants – have nearly reached their limits of growth. We can’t double the Canadian population by relying on these cities alone.
Where will the new immigrants go? A warming climate could see Prince Rupert become the new Vancouver. Cities like Prince George, Fort St. John, Dawson Creek, Grande Prairie, Peace River, Edmonton, and Saskatoon could see explosive growth. By populating these under-developed regions, Canada could easily double its population, perhaps even more.
Embracing global warming could be Canada’s ticket to becoming one of the world’s great nations.
But it won’t be easy. Massive investment would be needed. New transport infrastructure and national communications networks would be required. This expanded Canada would need to be integrated into a new globalized economy, with seamless access to international markets for Canadian goods.
At the same time, this expansion could bring many currently isolated Indigenous communities into the fold, fostering integration and economic participation in mainstream Canadian life.
It’s a bold and dramatic vision, but if global warming is indeed here to stay, it’s a vision that could secure Canada’s future as a young, vibrant, and dynamic nation for generations to come.
Robert McGarvey is an economic historian and former managing director of Merlin Consulting, a London, U.K.-based consulting firm. Robert is the author of Futuromics: A Guide to Thriving in Capitalism’s Third Wave.
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