Tariffs prove trade dominance, not fentanyl and border security, is the real motive
For interview requests, click here
U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariffs on Canadian goods mark a turning point in North American trade. These measures aren’t about fentanyl or border security—they’re about cementing U.S. economic dominance and reshaping global commerce. Canada is already paying the price.
On Feb. 1, Trump imposed a 25 per cent tariff on most Canadian imports and a 10 per cent tariff on energy products, citing economic concerns. In response, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s government announced retaliatory tariffs of 25 per cent on $107 billion worth of U.S. goods, effective Feb. 4. But these countermeasures won’t stop a seismic shift in trade relations that threatens Canada’s economy.
The Trump administration initially cited migration and fentanyl smuggling as reasons for the tariffs. Yet, between October 2023 and September 2024, U.S. Customs and Border Protection seized 9,930 kilograms of fentanyl at U.S. borders—only 20 kilograms came from Canada, a fraction compared to shipments from Mexico and China.
 Trump’s tariffs are reshaping Canada-U.S. trade relations. |
| Recommended |
| Canada’s tariff retaliation is a losing strategy
|
| Eastern Canada’s energy security at risk as U.S. imports surge
|
| Overregulation is killing Canada’s energy sector
|
To appease Washington, Canada pledged $1.3 billion for border security, and Alberta Premier Danielle Smith committed $29 million to combat drug trafficking. None of it mattered. The tariffs were never about security; they are part of a broader plan to reshape trade.
Trade deficits are at the core of Trump’s policy. “There is nothing Canada, Mexico, or China can do to prevent these tariffs,” he recently stated. The U.S. runs a $100 billion merchandise trade deficit with Canada, but excluding oil, the U.S. enjoys a trade surplus. That surplus is being ignored in favour of a protectionist agenda that disregards long-standing partnerships.
The impact on Canada will be severe. Oil and auto exports, the backbone of Canada’s trade with the U.S., are directly targeted. The U.S. produces 13.2 million barrels of crude oil daily but consumes 15.2 million, relying on heavier Canadian crude to maintain refinery operations. As Premier Smith noted, U.S. refineries upgrade $100 billion of Canadian crude into $300 billion worth of finished products. Rather than recognizing this mutually beneficial relationship, the Trump administration is disrupting both economies.
The auto industry faces similar threats. In 2023, Canada exported $51 billion in vehicles to the U.S., with balanced trade in cars and parts. New tariffs could paralyze North America’s integrated supply chain. The Bank of Canada estimates they could reduce Canada’s GDP by 2.5 percentage points, triggering a recession. Ontario Premier Doug Ford warned that 500,000 Ontario jobs are at risk, while Linamar Corp. Executive Chair Linda Hasenfratz cautioned that tariffs could halt North American auto production almost immediately.
Beyond the economic toll, trust between Canada and the U.S. is eroding. The tariffs, despite Canada’s efforts to address U.S. concerns, signal a shift in America’s trade philosophy. Mexico and the EU also feel the effects of this new order, which prioritizes U.S. dominance over historic alliances. Even if the tariffs are lifted, the damage to North American trade relations will persist.
Some argue that Trump is using tariffs as leverage for better trade terms with Canada. But even if this is true, the relationship is permanently altered. Canada is being treated not as an ally but as a competitor.
The era of predictable, rules-based trade with the U.S. is over. The tariffs are just the start of a larger economic realignment. Canada faces economic turbulence and must act now or risk being permanently sidelined in global trade.
Toronto-based Rashid Husain Syed is a highly regarded analyst specializing in energy and politics, particularly in the Middle East. In addition to his contributions to local and international newspapers, Rashid frequently lends his expertise as a speaker at global conferences. Organizations such as the Department of Energy in Washington and the International Energy Agency in Paris have sought his insights on global energy matters.
Explore more on Canada-U.S. relations, Canadian economy, Trade, Trump administration
Troy Media is dedicated to empowering Canadian community news outlets by providing independent, insightful analysis and commentary. Our mission is to support local media in fostering an informed and engaged public by delivering reliable content that strengthens community connections, enriches national conversations, and helps Canadians better understand one another.
